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BUSINESS NEWS - UK - Employer confidence climbs to nine-year high as labour market rebounds

Posted 18th August 2021 • Written by •

Employers in the UK are indicating strong employment intentions for the third quarter of 2021, with confidence surpassing pre-pandemic levels to hit a nine year high, according to the latest CIPD (Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development) Labour Market Outlook survey.

The survey found that its net employment intentions figure, which measures the difference between the proportion of employers expecting to add jobs and those planning to cut them, has risen for the fourth consecutive quarter. The figure now sits at +32, up from +27 last quarter, marking the strongest employer intentions seen since tracking began in Winter 2012/13.

The survey also showed that 69% of employers plan to recruit in the three months to September 2021, up from 64% in the last quarter and 49% this time last year.

CIPD noted there has been a shift in hiring intentions in certain sectors since summer 2020.

More than a quarter (26%) of hospitality/arts/entertainment employers were looking to hire last summer, increasing to 72% this summer. In transport and storage, this has increased from 33% to 65% of employers looking to hire. Both of these sectors have been impacted by the pandemic and changes to immigration as a result of Brexit, and are suffering from widely reported labour shortages.

Meanwhile, when asked how employers with hard-to-fill vacancies will deal with these vacancies, 44% said they would upskill existing staff, 26% said they would hire more apprentices, and 23% said they would raise wages.

“These tactics suggest employers are focusing their efforts on retaining the current workforce to address labour supply issues, as well as increasing recruitment,” the CIPD stated.

Jonathan Boys, labour market economist for the CIPD, said, “This is an incredibly strong set of data and paints a very different picture to employer intentions a year ago. Employers are very optimistic, indicating strong recruitment intentions and redundancy expectations appear much lower than originally predicted during the pandemic.

“Over the last year, employers have been able to flex the workforce to meet demand by using the furlough scheme to rapidly expand and contract staffing levels at minimal cost. This will no longer be a viable strategy as the (furlough) scheme winds down, so we’ll see recruitment and retention pick up the slack as employers look to plug any gaps in their workforce,” Boys added.

CIPD’s research also noted that the number of employers looking to make redundancies has settled at around 13%, compared to 33% in summer 2020. With this survey covering employer expectations up to the end of September 2021, this suggests that the end of the furlough scheme should be a ‘relatively smooth transition’ with minimal job losses.

Another key finding from the report showed that 81% of employers are planning a pay review in the 12 months to June 2022. Among these employers, 33% expect a pay increase, 12% expect a pay freeze and 1% expect a pay decrease. Two-fifths (37%) said it is hard to tell and will depend on organisational performance.

Median basic pay settlements remain at 2%, the same as last quarter. This is a slight uptick from the 1% reported for four consecutive quarters in 2020.

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